2012 Stanley Cup Playoffs: Round One

Diligent NHL followers have waited for six months in anticipation of tonight. The Stanley Cup playoffs are upon us and that means it’s prediction time. So let’s take a look at each matchup and time will tell how successful I’ll be.

Starting in the West…

Vancouver Canucks (1 seed)

Regular Season Record: 51-22-9 (111 points)

VS.

Los Angeles Kings (8 seed)

Regular Season Record: 40-27-15 (95 points)

This season, the Kings have taken 3 of 4 against the Canucks with one of those wins coming in overtime. The regular season series may have been dominated by LA, but their scoring woes are going to come back to bite them. The Kings averaged only 2.29 goals per game this season, pegging them 29th in the league in the category. Outstanding goaltender Jonathan Quick was the savior of the team, registering 35 wins with a save percentage of.929 and a GAA of 1.95. However, the Canucks are a high scoring team with a talented pair of goaltenders of their own. They ranked 5th in goals for and 4th in goals against in the league this year. I believe that fire power will help them past the low-scoring Kings.

My prediction: Vancouver in 5.

Season Series Record: LA won 3 of 4

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St. Louis Blues (2 seed)

Regular Season Record: 49-22-11 (109 points)

VS.

San Jose Sharks (7 seed)

Regular Season Record: 43-29-10 (96 points)

So often, playoff games come down to goal tending. That is what makes this an interesting matchup. On paper, it looks like the Blues have the obvious advantage. Both Halak and Elliott have had outstanding seasons, making them the most formidable goalie duo in the NHL. But don’t forget that the Sharks have a Cup winner in net with Antti Niemi. He hasn’t had the greatest season, but he has scorers in front of him that had the second best power play in the league. But ultimately, I believe defense will win out in this series and defense is the game St. Louis loves to play.

My prediction: St. Louis in 6

Season Series Record: St. Louis won all 4

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Phoenix Coyotes (3 seed)

Regular Season Record: 42-27-13 (97 points)

VS.

Chicago Blackhawks (6 seed)

Regular Season Record: 45-26-11 (101 points)

The Coyotes have won their division for the first time in team history. The confidence level in Phoenix is at an all-time high because of its stellar goaltender Mike Smith. No one could have predicted the season he had this year. Coming off of waivers to a top-ten ranking in goalie wins, save percentage and goals against average. And don’t forget about the rest of the Coyotes defense; they rank 5th in goals against and 8th in the penalty kill. The Coyotes should be a formidable matchup for the Blackhawks. The Hawks are 6th in the league in scoring and they have Stanley Cup winners throughout the locker room. When all is said and done, I think that Chicago’s postseason experience is going to ultimately win out.

My prediction: Chicago in 7

Season Series Record: Phoenix won 3 of 4

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Nashville Predators (4 seed)

Regular Season Record: 48-26-8 (104 points)

VS.

Detroit Redwings (5 seed)

Regular Season Record: 48-28-6 (102 points)

I think this is the most intriguing first round matchup outside of the Pittsburgh and Philadelphia series. This series pits the seasoned veterans of the Wings against the younger and defensively sound Preds. The Predators are getting a ton of picks in this series because most people have their doubts about the longevity of the Redwings. But don’t forget that Detroit has one of best goalies in the NHL (who is nearly as talented as the Pred’s Pekka Rinne), a perennial Norris Trophy winner in Lidstrom and the Wings also have some younger players like Darren Helm with quick legs and playoff experience. I don’t want to sell Nashville short, however. They had the best trade deadline moves in the NHL and their defense is as solid as there is in the league with Shea Weber and Ryan Suter anchoring the blue line. Despite taking the popular pick of the Preds, I can’t imagine the Redwings falling out quickly.

My prediction: Detroit in 6

Season Series Record: Both teams won 3

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Now we’ll move onto the East…

New York Rangers (1 seed)

Regular Season Record: 51-24-7 (109)

VS.

Ottawa Senators (8 seed)

Regular Season Record: 41-31-10 (92 points)

The Rangers rolled through the regular season, never looking in the least that they might stumble at some point. But everyone knows the regular season is not the playoffs. Case in point: Despite being the best team in the league this season, the Rangers won only one game out of four against the Sens this year. They have been owned by the high scoring offense of Ottawa. But as I mentioned before, the regular season might not mean anything in this series. Defense is the name of the game in New York and Ottawa is far more focused on the aggressive offense they have been used to playing. Usually, defense wins out in these matchups, but don’t expect Ottawa to get swept or anything of the sort.

My prediction: Rangers in 7

Senators won 3 of 4

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Boston Bruins (2 seed)

Regular Season Record: 49-29-4 (102 points)

VS.

Washington Capitals (7 seed)

Regular Season Record: 42-32-8 (92 points)

I feel like this might be the biggest mismatch in the entire first round. Washington had a relatively bad year, but they still made the playoffs because they play in a horrible division. Although the Caps have been coming on as of late (with a ton of help from Ovechkin) they still seem like a team in general disarray. The Bruins are better than Washington in almost every category and ultimately, I think the Caps will fail because of their shaky goaltending and swiss-cheese defense. The Bruins are the defending Stanley Cup champions and they are starting to look like that team once more. With an MVP playoff goalie in Tim Thomas and a host of other players that play physical with a high intensity, I can’t picture a scenario in which Washington could win this series.

My prediction: Boston in 5

Washington won 3 of 4

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Florida Panthers (3 seed)

Regular Season Record: 38-26-18

VS.

New Jersey Devils (6 seed)

Regular Season Record: 48-28-6 (102)

This is probably the first round game that I have the least interest in. I don’t think either of these teams could win more than one series, but I won’t sell either of them short. Florida hasn’t been to the playoffs in more than a decade and they only made it to the playoffs because they played in the worst division in hockey. Jose Theodore will be in net for this series and he hasn’t had a ton of success this year. The injury bug bit him and the net in Florida had a built-in revolving door. I believe that inconsistency will hurt the Panthers in the end. On the other side, the Devils have the best goalie in the modern game. They have good scorers in Parise and Kovalchuk, but the team only averages 2.63 goals per game, which notches them in 15th in the NHL. Either way, this series could be a crapshoot. So I’ll go with the veteran goalie and the dynamic scorers in New Jersey.

My prediction: New Jersey in 6

Season Series Record: Both teams won 2

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Pittsburgh Penguins (4 seed)

Regular Season Record: 51-25-6 (108 points)

VS.

Philadelphia Flyers (5 seed)

Regular Season Record: 47-26-9

This is hands down the most intriguing matchup of the first round. It’s obvious that these teams have a fierce rivalry, but it only got heated more in the last week of the season. The teams are very similar in their stats, ranking 1 and 2 in goal scoring (Pittsburgh being 1), 15 and 20 in goals against (Pittsburgh being 15) and the teams are also 5 and 6 on the powerplay (Pittsburgh being 5). The goalies matchup in Pittsburgh’s favor, as Bryzgalov only recently became a shutdown goalie this season. Marc-Andre Fleury already has a cup and he knows what it takes to win it. Philadelphia is relatively clueless when it comes to their goaltender each year, but they’re hoping that changes in the first round. Look for these games to be relatively high scoring and hard checking. Since the Pens lead in every category against the Flyers, I’ll take them 10/10 times.

My prediction: Pittsburgh in 6.

Season Series Record: Flyers won 4 of 6