Decision Time for Penguins GM Shero

At this point in the Pittsburgh Penguins’ season, general manager Ray Shero should be asking himself a few questions.

First and foremost, when is Sidney Crosby coming back?

Crosby has been feeling better lately. He is skating almost every day and he says that his previous balance issues have subsided. However, Sid is still suffering from headaches. He says they’re getting more tolerable, but that isn’t good enough. He needs to be symptom-free before he is cleared for contact in practice. Then, it will probably take a few weeks so Crosby can find out for sure if he is able to take contact without his symptoms returning.

Unfortunately, that’s a big “if.”

One option Shero could do is place Crosby on long-term injured reserve. Doing so would free up significant cap room for Shero to make a big deal before the trade deadline a week from now. Long-term injured reserve would also mean Sid would not be eligible to come back in the regular season, but he would be able to return for the playoffs.  There are only 23 games remaining in the Penguins regular season, which spans seven weeks. I’m not sure it’s likely that Crosby can become symptom-free, cleared for contact and return to game action in seven weeks.

Look at Sid’s previous recovery period. On September 7, 2011, Crosby and his doctors held a press conference to announce that he had made significant progress from his previous concussion and at that point, he was nearly symptom-free. It took 75 days after that press conference for Sid to return to game action. Even if the Penguins announced tomorrow that he was symptom-free, 75 days after that would be April 30. At that point, Pittsburgh would be well past the regular season, which ends on April 7.

Hopefully, Sid’s latest recovery won’t take him that long. But even if it took half that time, that would leave only six games remaining in the regular season. But could those six games make a huge difference in the Penguins’ playoff seeding?

Absolutely.

Those six include games against the Flyers, Bruins and Rangers. All of which are currently ahead of Pittsburgh in the Eastern Conference standings.

But right now, this team has shown it can win score without Sid. More importantly, it has shown it can win without him.

So that brings Shero to his next question, should he assume that Sid won’t be back for the regular season, place him on LTIR and make an acquisition?

Shero has always been one of the biggest movers and shakers at the trade deadline, previously acquiring guys like Marian Hossa and Chris Kunitz. He also added tremendous talent when he acquired James Neal from Dallas last year (as well as a solid defenseman in Matt Niskanen).

But Shero’s deals haven’t all been peaches and cream. Neal was basically a bust last season. Sure, he’s showing his true colors now, but he didn’t score much last year and that’s why the Pens were ousted so quickly in the first round of the playoffs. Last year, Shero also added former Penguin Alex Kovalev. He turned out to be just as unproductive as Neal.

Overall, I trust Shero’s judgment. But what does he need to add to the team to make a legitimate playoff run? Obviously, it never hurts to add scoring to the lineup.

There are a few notable scorers out there that are rumored to be on the trading block soon, the biggest of which is Rick Nash of the Columbus Bluejackets. But even if Sid were on LTIR, the cap room wouldn’t be enough and the Pens would have to take on a six-year contract, with a hit of $7.8 million per year. They can’t afford that.

One name that has surfaced in trade speculation is Buffalo Sabres forward Paul Gaustad. He will become an unrestricted free agent after this season and the Sabres are well out of contention, so there’s a good chance they will want to move him. He brings a cap hit of $2.3 million, which could be affordable for the Pens after moving Crosby to LTIR.

Gaustad is a big net front presence. At 6-feet, 4-inches tall and weighing 225 pounds, he certainly makes a better door than window in front of a goaltender, which is vastly important in today’s NHL. Gaustad is also a solid face-off man. On Sunday against Pittsburgh, he won 16 of his 23 draws.

I wouldn’t be opposed to bringing him on, but remember that the Penguins already have a significant net-front guy. Chris Kunitz earns every penny he makes in front of the net, providing screens vital to the scoring of his line mates Evgeni Malkin and James Neal. I wouldn’t take Gaustad ahead of “Crease” Kunitz, but having them both could be productive.

But in my honest opinion, there’s only one area that Pittsburgh has been awful at: backup goaltending. Brent Johnson is having one of his worst seasons of his career, with a record of 3-7-2, a goals against average of 3.17 and a save percentage of .882. He has been pulled in three of his last five starts.

Johnson has been a popular player in Pittsburgh, especially after he sent opposing Islanders goalie Rick DiPietro crashing to the ice in a rare goalie fight last February.

But with 23 games remaining, the Penguins need to do something to sure up their backup goalie spot. Fleury has already started 47 games and has appeared in 50. If the Flower started in every remaining game, that would put his regularly season total at 70. That would be way too many. Historically, goalies that play in upwards of 60-70 games get too worn down and end up ineffective in the playoffs. When the Penguins won the Stanley Cup in 2008-2009, Fleury started 61 games. Even that was considered too many.

So hypothetically, Fleury should start in about 10 more of the remaining 23 to put him on pace for his Stanley Cup winning season. Pittsburgh cannot risk leaving Johnson to start 13 more games this year.

So what can Shero do?

His first option would be to call up goaltender Brad Thiessen from the Wilkes-Barre Scranton Penguins in the American Hockey League. With the Baby Pens, Thiessen is 20-14-2 with a 2.88 GAA and a .885 save percentage. Unfortunately, the 25-year-old goaltender has not started any NHL games in his career. I know that goose egg is worrisome, but it might be worth the risk at this point. Honestly, Johnson couldn’t get much worse.

Shero’s other option would be acquiring a backup from elsewhere in the NHL. It’s tough to predict where backup goaltenders could go, but I think the Pens GM should be looking at all of the non-playoff contending teams and their backup goaltenders for possible deals. This list includes Columbus, Edmonton and Anaheim in the West and Carolina, Buffalo, New York Islanders and Montreal in the East.

Columbus backup Curtis Sanford could be a viable option, but was recently placed on injured reserve with an upper- body injury and is listed as day-to-day. If he were to get healthy quickly, he could garner interest. This season, Sanford has gone 10-13-4 with a 2.52 goals-against average and a .915 save percentage on a terrible defensive team. Like Brent Johnson, he will become an unrestricted free agent after this season and he commands the same $600,000 cap hit.

Or how about someone from the Islanders? They are deep at the position, essentially with way more backup talent than starting talent. They have seasoned veterans Evgeni Nabokov and Al Montoya, commanding $570,000 and $601,000 contracts, respectively. They both also become unrestricted free agents after this season, so it’s probable the Islanders could move at least one of them to clear some cap space.

One other viable option could be third-string goalie Justin Peters of the Carolina Hurricanes. The team has established that Brian Boucher is their solid No. 2 guy, so why not move Peters? Pittsburgh may be reluctant to move any of their prospects in this deal, but Peters will become a restricted free agent after this season and his salary is only $525,000 per season. This season, Peters is 1-3-0 with a 3.65 goals-against average and a .911 save percentage. Sure the numbers aren’t fantastic, but in the turbulent world of the NHL, you never know.

Good luck, Ray, I’m glad I’m not in your seat right now.

Game 6 of Remaining 29: Pittsburgh at Buffalo

Pittsburgh Penguins: 33-20-5 (71 points)

5th in the Eastern Conference

VS.

Buffalo Sabres: 24-27-7 (55 points)

15th in the Eastern Conference

I’ll admit it, I haven’t been doing so well on my predictions so far. But like I’ve mentioned before, it’s tough to predict games that are weeks away like I did initially. Regardless, I’m pressing on. Pittsburgh is carrying a ton of momentum to Buffalo after a big win in Philly on Saturday. The Sabres, however, have little to no momentum or hope. They are dead last in the Eastern Conference and there is no end in sight. My prediction: Pens WIN.

My final 29 prediction record: 1-4

Game 5 of Remaining 29: Pittsburgh at Philadelphia

Pittsburgh Penguins 32-20-5 (69 points)

6th in the Eastern Conference

 

 

VS.

Philadelphia Flyers 32-18-7 (71 points)

4th in the Eastern Conference

 

 

 

As much as I wanted to predict a win in this game against the arch rivals, Philly just seems to have Pittsburgh’s number this year. My prediction: Pens LOSE.

My final 29 prediction record: 1-3

 

Game 4 of Remaining 29: Anaheim at Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh Penguins: 32-19-5 (69 points)

5th in the Eastern Conference

 

 

VS.

Anaheim Ducks: 23-24-9 (55 points)

13th in the Western Conference

 

 

Making a prediction long before games is tough, considering that teams can get hot and cold at different times. Right now, Anaheim is red hot. The Ducks have scored 58 goals in their last 19 games, that will be a tall order to stop for the Pens. Although the Ducks are surging right now behind the hot stick of Corey Perry, my previous prediction still stands, as always. My prediction: Pens WIN.

My final 29 prediction record: 1-2

Game 3 of Remaining 29: Tampa Bay at Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh Penguins: 31-19-5 (67 points)

5th in the Eastern Conference

 
VS.

Tampa Bay Lightning: 24-24-6 (54 points)

12th in the Eastern Conference

 

 

 

 

Pittsburgh is coming off of a high-flying home win against the Winnipeg Jets. That win was the first that I predicted correctly. Hopefully, I’m wrong about the prediction for this Tampa game. When I predicted the final 29 games for the Pens, I chalked up a loss for them for this one. This is the first time the Lightning will play in Pittsburgh since last year’s playoffs. The Pens are 1-1 against the Lightning this season, with both the win and the loss coming on the road for the Pens. Hopefully, the Pens can pull out a victory tonight and I can admit defeat. Either way, my prediction is: Penguins LOSE.

My final 29 prediction record: 1-1

Game 1 of Remaining 29: Pittsburgh at Montreal

Pittsburgh: 30-19-4 (64 points)

5th in the Eastern Conference

VS.

Montreal: 20-24-9 (49 points)

14th in the Eastern Conference

 

 

Pittsburgh’s record so far against the Habs this season: 3-0 (two home wins, one road win)

My prediction: Penguins WIN

Pittsburgh Penguins Remaining Games Predictions

For the Pittsburgh Penguins, tonight marks the starting point for the final three months of the regular season. There are 29 games remaining before potential playoff time and I have made my predictions. Are they bold? I don’t think so. Will they be exact? Probably not. Will they give you something to think about?

Absolutely.

In the remaining games, the Pens will face only four teams that they haven’t seen already this season (Nashville, Anaheim, Columbus and Phoenix). But for the other 25 teams left on the schedule, the Pens should be able to put together some type of game plans based on their prior familiarity. That’s exactly what I did. Here are some key points to consider:

  • Against the remaining familiar teams this season, Pittsburgh has a total record of 19-18
  • Its road record against these teams is 8-11
  • Its home record against these teams is 11-7
  • Pittsburgh has 17 games remaining at home
  • They have 12 games remaining on the road
  • Pittsburgh has a record of 6-9 against Atlantic Division opponents
  • The Pens will play Atlantic Division opponents 11 more times this season
  • Of the remaining familiar teams they will face, Pittsburgh has the worst record against New Jersey (1-5)
  • Of the remaining familiar teams the Pens will face, they have the best record against the Islanders (4-0)

Now before I go any further into my predictions, I wish to make one point. Although I want to stay optimistic about the return of Sidney Crosby, it’s hard for me to think that he will be back before the playoffs (should Pittsburgh reach the playoffs).  In an earlier post, I predicted a hypothetical situation in which Crosby would return to game action on February 29 against the Dallas Stars.

In retrospect, that was much too bold of a prediction.

Sid still needs to get rid of the remaining concussion symptoms to even be cleared for contact. Then, he would need time to recondition (again) and become game ready. If you look at the timeline of his last return, the remaining amount of games won’t allow for a regular season return. Once again, I hope I’m wrong.

So the predictions I am about to make are all based on a Crosby-less Pittsburgh hockey club. If Sid were to return at any point in the regular season, my predictions would certainly change. But since we have no way of knowing, I’ll move forward without the Pen’s captain.

  • I predict that in the final 29 games, Pittsburgh will put together a record of 17-10-2, earning them 36 more points. In this span, Pittsburgh will go 11-5-1 at home and 6-5-1 on the road.
  • In this scenario, Pittsburgh will finish the season with a final record of 47-29-6 with a grand total of 100 points. (Last season, the Penguins finished with a record of 49-25-8, earning a total of 106 points. One-hundred points overall would have pegged Pittsburgh in the sixth playoff spot last season.)
  • Here are the remaining games Pittsburgh will win at home: Winnipeg (twice), Anaheim, Rangers, Tampa Bay, Columbus, Toronto, Florida, New Jersey, Islanders and Philadelphia.
  • Here are the remaining games Pittsburgh will lose at home: Tampa Bay, Phoenix, Boston, Nashville, Philadelphia and the Rangers (OT/SO).
  • On the road, the Pens will beat the following teams: Montreal, Buffalo (twice), New Jersey (finally), Philadelphia (finally) and Boston.
  • On the road, Pittsburgh will lose to the following clubs: Philadelphia, Dallas, Colorado (OT/SO), Rangers, Ottawa and the Islanders.
  • The longest remaining winning streak for the Pens will be a string of four games starting Feb. 19 at Buffalo, and will continue with wins against the Rangers at home, Tampa Bay at home and Columbus at home. The streak will end in Dallas on Feb. 29 against the Stars.
  • Pittsburgh will not lose more than two games in a row for the rest of the season.

I made these predictions by using a few different methods. First, I examined all of the teams the Penguins have already played and closely looked at how they did on the road and at home against these teams. Overall, the Pens are a much better home team than they are on the road against the remaining familiar teams this season. They are 11-7 at home, compared to 8-11 on the road.

For example, I believe Pittsburgh will start the month of February with a fourth straight win against Montreal. In 23 career starts against the Habs, Marc-Andre Fleury has a 13-8-1 record with a 3.32 GAA and .887 SV%. I like those odds, so I gave Pittsburgh the win.

Another example is how I picked the remaining games against the Devils. New Jersey has owned Pittsburgh this season and has not lost to the Pens at home. I predicted wins in both of the remaining games against the Devils because I don’t believe there is any way that the Penguins can keep losing to this team. There have been some close games against the Devils this season and I think that there is so much game film that is rife with mistakes, Pittsburgh will be able to identify why they keep losing to the Devils.

And finally, I went with my gut. I’ve seen enough Penguins games to get a good feel for how this team will work out. It’s obviously not a science, but so much of sports comes down to intangibles; it’s not always stats that tell the story.

You may not agree with all my choices, but regardless of your opinion, you can check out my running track record that I will update after each game the Penguins play. So keep coming back to Polish Pedro’s Sports and Such and see how I’m doing. Feel free to make fun of my downfalls and congratulate me on my triumphs.

But no matter what happens, the remaining three months of the Penguins regular season should be as exciting as ever.

Evgeni Malkin: A Lesson in Resurgence

Pittsburgh Penguins center Evgeni Malkin should send Buffalo Sabres defenseman Tyler Myers a fruit basket right now. That may be an odd statement considering that Myers is the player who fell into Malkin’s right leg, tearing his ACL and MCL. At the time, it was a devastating blow to an already injury-riddled Penguins club and no one knew how long it would take for Malkin to recover and return to action. Unfortunately, Malkin didn’t make it back in the 2010-2011 season and the Penguins, without both Malkin and their captain Sidney Crosby, lost in seven games to the Tampa Bay Lightning in the first round of the 2011 playoffs.

But that injury changed Malkin. It sparked a fire of ambition in his heart and he set out to not only rehabilitate his knee, but also to become the best hockey player he had ever been.

Malkin had surgery to repair the torn ligaments in his knee on Thursday, Feb. 10. Although recovery time varies from person to person for that injury, it was expected that it would take Malkin six months or more to fully recover. But in June 2011, Penguins head coach Dan Bylsma revealed to reporters that Malkin may have been healthy enough to have played in the series against the Lightning in late April. That meant that Malkin had recovered from his injury in a third of the time it would take a normal human being. This insight from Bylsma made it clear that Malkin was serious about hockey.

During the summer of 2011, Malkin continued to rehabilitate his knee in his native Russia. During his time there, he brought Penguins strength and conditioning coach Mike Kadar to oversee his recovery and help him regain strength in his knee, as well as in the rest of his body. This process was taped by Kadar and then posted in video snippets on the Pittsburgh Penguins website and titled “From Russia with Love.” In these videos, you can see that Malkin wasn’t just working out his knee, he was working everything. From weight training and power skating to swimming and stick handling, Geno had turned into a training freak.

During his time with Malkin, Kadar told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette “I think this is my fifth year knowing Geno, and I have never seen him this committed to wanting to get better and get well.” Malkin’s close friend and former countryman Sergei Gonchar also gave similar statements about Malkin’s motivation and drive to get better. The word was out: Geno had never trained this hard.

Now, after nearly a year has passed since Malkin’s injury, it is quite apparent that his ambition to transform himself has paid off. Malkin is the NHL’s scoring leader with 58 points, despite missing seven games due to injury. He’s had goals in eight of his last nine contests and is averaging a league-leading 1.41 points per game. The Penguins have now won a season-high six straight games and Malkin has scored at least one goal in each of those games, which ties for the longest goal-scoring streak of his career, which he established Oct. 18-Nov. 1, 2006 – the first six games of his NHL career (which set a modern day record for being the first player to score at least one goal in each of his first six games). Malkin is currently tied for third in the NHL in goal scoring with 26, is tied for fifth in power-play points (18) and is tied for sixth in assists (32). At this point, it isn’t unrealistic to think that he could be a legitimate contender for both the Rocket Richard trophy (most goals scored in the NHL season) and the Art Ross trophy (most points scored in the NHL season).

During his best statistical season (2008-2009) Malkin finished with a league-high 113 points to win the scoring title, finishing with 35 goals and 78 assists. That season, he also amassed 20 power-play goals, five game-winning goals and 211 shots. This season, he is on pace for 105 points with 47 goals (12 more than in 08-09) and 58 assists. He is also on pace for nine power-play goals, 13 game-winning goals (eight more than in 08-09) and a whopping 358 shots (147 more than 08-09). And remember, in 2008-2009, he played the entire 82-game season. If he stays healthy enough to play in the rest of the games this year, he will have played in 75 games, seven less than his best season.

How and when Malkin is scoring goals right now is also a key factor to examine. So far, Malkin has scored seven game winning goals, second to only Johan Franzen of the Detroit Redwings. That is already two more than in Malkin’s best season. On Nov. 15, Malkin scored one of his most memorable goals of the season against the Colorado Avalanche. He received a pass from James Neal in the corner of the offensive zone, deked and put the puck through the legs of a defender and dove across the goal mouth to deposit the puck behind goaltender Semyon Varlamov.

On Jan. 13, Malkin scored a natural hat-trick in the third period against the third place Florida Panthers to help win the game for the Penguins and end a six-game losing streak. Then four days later in a game against the Carolina Hurricanes, Malkin showed why he might be the best goal scorer in the NHL, skating in toward Cam Ward and then lifting the puck practically straight up to find the only space Ward was allowing on that side. It was nearly an impossible goal.

Then there was Geno’s backhand goal over Henrik Lundqvist on Jan. 19. The goal helped lift the Penguins to a win over the first place Rangers, ending a streak of three straight losses to the Blueshirts. He simply beat one of the game’s best goalies with one of the game’s most wicked backhands.

Or how about Malkin’s performance against Montreal on Friday, Jan. 20? He tied the game late in the third with one of the hardest one-timers you will ever see and then won the game in the shootout.  And you can’t discount his latest game against the Washington Capitals, in which he notched the game winner in over time. His scoring feats go on and on this year. But it’s not just scoring in regulation and overtime that has made Malkin one of the elite scorers of the league. He is also much more comfortable in the shootout. It was common knowledge that in the past, Malkin didn’t like participating in the shootout. He was uninventive and he wasn’t productive. In 08-09, Geno was 2-7 in the shootout with a 28.6 goal percentage. And he only scored one game-deciding shootout goal that season. This year, Malkin is relishing the shootout. He is 4-6 with a 66.7 goal percentage and he already has two game-deciding shootout goals. At his current pace, expect Geno to notch seven shootout goals if the Pens shootout appearances continue to rack up at their current pace.

Defensively, Malkin is also excelling on the ice. He is currently a plus-12 and he continues to back check hard during every shift, making his speed and stick-work just as effective on defense as they are on offense. And one key aspect that I’ve noticed about Malkin is his willingness to block shots. Although most Penguins fans would rather he not put himself in the line of fire, his commitment to risk his body defensively makes a huge statement about him. His teammates and coaches know that when a superstar offensive player like Geno gets down in front of a slapper from the blue line, he is committed to help the team win in every way he can.

Finally, we should also examine Geno in the faceoff circle. This was another area that he never seemed comfortable in. In his career, Malkin averages a 41.3 win percentage in the faceoff circle. This year, he is winning 44.8 percent of his draws. So far, this is the best season of his career in taking draws, his previous best being his rookie season when he averaged 43.3 percent in the circle.

So why is this year so different? Why is Geno having one of the best seasons of his career? Because everyone was doubting Malkin, even Malkin himself. After his 2008-2009 season (in which he won the regular season scoring titles, was the leading scorer of the playoffs and was awarded the post-season MVP) Malkin’s numbers began to decline. In the 2009-2010 season, he scored 77 points (down from 113 the previous year), 28 goals (down from 35 the previous year) and was a minus-6 (compared to a plus-17 the previous year). Although he played in 15 games fewer in 2009-2010, it was apparent that there was something missing from his game. His skid continued in the 2010-2011 campaign, when he registered only 37 points (15 goals and 22 assists) in 43 games. Again, Malkin was a minus player when he went down with his knee injury.

The hockey pundits noticed the declines and were quick to write Geno off, and how could they not? The numbers were in black in white. The former Russian superstar just wasn’t playing like he had before. Tyler Myers gave Geno the opportunity to alter the course he was on and silence the doubters. Now he’s changing the way everyone has thought of him the past few seasons. He is in top form with no signs of slowing down. Once again, Evgeni Malkin is a superstar and the city of Pittsburgh couldn’t be happier.