As much as I wanted to predict a win in this game against the arch rivals, Philly just seems to have Pittsburgh’s number this year. My prediction: Pens LOSE.
Making a prediction long before games is tough, considering that teams can get hot and cold at different times. Right now, Anaheim is red hot. The Ducks have scored 58 goals in their last 19 games, that will be a tall order to stop for the Pens. Although the Ducks are surging right now behind the hot stick of Corey Perry, my previous prediction still stands, as always. My prediction: Pens WIN.
Pittsburgh is coming off of a high-flying home win against the Winnipeg Jets. That win was the first that I predicted correctly. Hopefully, I’m wrong about the prediction for this Tampa game. When I predicted the final 29 games for the Pens, I chalked up a loss for them for this one. This is the first time the Lightning will play in Pittsburgh since last year’s playoffs. The Pens are 1-1 against the Lightning this season, with both the win and the loss coming on the road for the Pens. Hopefully, the Pens can pull out a victory tonight and I can admit defeat. Either way, my prediction is: Penguins LOSE.
For the Pittsburgh Penguins, tonight marks the starting point for the final three months of the regular season. There are 29 games remaining before potential playoff time and I have made my predictions. Are they bold? I don’t think so. Will they be exact? Probably not. Will they give you something to think about?
Absolutely.
In the remaining games, the Pens will face only four teams that they haven’t seen already this season (Nashville, Anaheim, Columbus and Phoenix). But for the other 25 teams left on the schedule, the Pens should be able to put together some type of game plans based on their prior familiarity. That’s exactly what I did. Here are some key points to consider:
Against the remaining familiar teams this season, Pittsburgh has a total record of 19-18
Its road record against these teams is 8-11
Its home record against these teams is 11-7
Pittsburgh has 17 games remaining at home
They have 12 games remaining on the road
Pittsburgh has a record of 6-9 against Atlantic Division opponents
The Pens will play Atlantic Division opponents 11 more times this season
Of the remaining familiar teams they will face, Pittsburgh has the worst record against New Jersey (1-5)
Of the remaining familiar teams the Pens will face, they have the best record against the Islanders (4-0)
Now before I go any further into my predictions, I wish to make one point. Although I want to stay optimistic about the return of Sidney Crosby, it’s hard for me to think that he will be back before the playoffs (should Pittsburgh reach the playoffs). In an earlier post, I predicted a hypothetical situation in which Crosby would return to game action on February 29 against the Dallas Stars.
In retrospect, that was much too bold of a prediction.
Sid still needs to get rid of the remaining concussion symptoms to even be cleared for contact. Then, he would need time to recondition (again) and become game ready. If you look at the timeline of his last return, the remaining amount of games won’t allow for a regular season return. Once again, I hope I’m wrong.
So the predictions I am about to make are all based on a Crosby-less Pittsburgh hockey club. If Sid were to return at any point in the regular season, my predictions would certainly change. But since we have no way of knowing, I’ll move forward without the Pen’s captain.
I predict that in the final 29 games, Pittsburgh will put together a record of 17-10-2, earning them 36 more points. In this span, Pittsburgh will go 11-5-1 at home and 6-5-1 on the road.
In this scenario, Pittsburgh will finish the season with a final record of 47-29-6 with a grand total of 100 points. (Last season, the Penguins finished with a record of 49-25-8, earning a total of 106 points. One-hundred points overall would have pegged Pittsburgh in the sixth playoff spot last season.)
Here are the remaining games Pittsburgh will win at home: Winnipeg (twice), Anaheim, Rangers, Tampa Bay, Columbus, Toronto, Florida, New Jersey, Islanders and Philadelphia.
Here are the remaining games Pittsburgh will lose at home: Tampa Bay, Phoenix, Boston, Nashville, Philadelphia and the Rangers (OT/SO).
On the road, the Pens will beat the following teams: Montreal, Buffalo (twice), New Jersey (finally), Philadelphia (finally) and Boston.
On the road, Pittsburgh will lose to the following clubs: Philadelphia, Dallas, Colorado (OT/SO), Rangers, Ottawa and the Islanders.
The longest remaining winning streak for the Pens will be a string of four games starting Feb. 19 at Buffalo, and will continue with wins against the Rangers at home, Tampa Bay at home and Columbus at home. The streak will end in Dallas on Feb. 29 against the Stars.
Pittsburgh will not lose more than two games in a row for the rest of the season.
I made these predictions by using a few different methods. First, I examined all of the teams the Penguins have already played and closely looked at how they did on the road and at home against these teams. Overall, the Pens are a much better home team than they are on the road against the remaining familiar teams this season. They are 11-7 at home, compared to 8-11 on the road.
For example, I believe Pittsburgh will start the month of February with a fourth straight win against Montreal. In 23 career starts against the Habs, Marc-Andre Fleury has a 13-8-1 record with a 3.32 GAA and .887 SV%. I like those odds, so I gave Pittsburgh the win.
Another example is how I picked the remaining games against the Devils. New Jersey has owned Pittsburgh this season and has not lost to the Pens at home. I predicted wins in both of the remaining games against the Devils because I don’t believe there is any way that the Penguins can keep losing to this team. There have been some close games against the Devils this season and I think that there is so much game film that is rife with mistakes, Pittsburgh will be able to identify why they keep losing to the Devils.
And finally, I went with my gut. I’ve seen enough Penguins games to get a good feel for how this team will work out. It’s obviously not a science, but so much of sports comes down to intangibles; it’s not always stats that tell the story.
You may not agree with all my choices, but regardless of your opinion, you can check out my running track record that I will update after each game the Penguins play. So keep coming back to Polish Pedro’s Sports and Such and see how I’m doing. Feel free to make fun of my downfalls and congratulate me on my triumphs.
But no matter what happens, the remaining three months of the Penguins regular season should be as exciting as ever.
Pittsburgh Penguins center Evgeni Malkin should send Buffalo Sabres defenseman Tyler Myers a fruit basket right now. That may be an odd statement considering that Myers is the player who fell into Malkin’s right leg, tearing his ACL and MCL. At the time, it was a devastating blow to an already injury-riddled Penguins club and no one knew how long it would take for Malkin to recover and return to action. Unfortunately, Malkin didn’t make it back in the 2010-2011 season and the Penguins, without both Malkin and their captain Sidney Crosby, lost in seven games to the Tampa Bay Lightning in the first round of the 2011 playoffs.
But that injury changed Malkin. It sparked a fire of ambition in his heart and he set out to not only rehabilitate his knee, but also to become the best hockey player he had ever been.
Malkin had surgery to repair the torn ligaments in his knee on Thursday, Feb. 10. Although recovery time varies from person to person for that injury, it was expected that it would take Malkin six months or more to fully recover. But in June 2011, Penguins head coach Dan Bylsma revealed to reporters that Malkin may have been healthy enough to have played in the series against the Lightning in late April. That meant that Malkin had recovered from his injury in a third of the time it would take a normal human being. This insight from Bylsma made it clear that Malkin was serious about hockey.
During the summer of 2011, Malkin continued to rehabilitate his knee in his native Russia. During his time there, he brought Penguins strength and conditioning coach Mike Kadar to oversee his recovery and help him regain strength in his knee, as well as in the rest of his body. This process was taped by Kadar and then posted in video snippets on the Pittsburgh Penguins website and titled “From Russia with Love.” In these videos, you can see that Malkin wasn’t just working out his knee, he was working everything. From weight training and power skating to swimming and stick handling, Geno had turned into a training freak.
During his time with Malkin, Kadar told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette “I think this is my fifth year knowing Geno, and I have never seen him this committed to wanting to get better and get well.” Malkin’s close friend and former countryman Sergei Gonchar also gave similar statements about Malkin’s motivation and drive to get better. The word was out: Geno had never trained this hard.
Now, after nearly a year has passed since Malkin’s injury, it is quite apparent that his ambition to transform himself has paid off. Malkin is the NHL’s scoring leader with 58 points, despite missing seven games due to injury. He’s had goals in eight of his last nine contests and is averaging a league-leading 1.41 points per game. The Penguins have now won a season-high six straight games and Malkin has scored at least one goal in each of those games, which ties for the longest goal-scoring streak of his career, which he established Oct. 18-Nov. 1, 2006 – the first six games of his NHL career (which set a modern day record for being the first player to score at least one goal in each of his first six games). Malkin is currently tied for third in the NHL in goal scoring with 26, is tied for fifth in power-play points (18) and is tied for sixth in assists (32). At this point, it isn’t unrealistic to think that he could be a legitimate contender for both the Rocket Richard trophy (most goals scored in the NHL season) and the Art Ross trophy (most points scored in the NHL season).
During his best statistical season (2008-2009) Malkin finished with a league-high 113 points to win the scoring title, finishing with 35 goals and 78 assists. That season, he also amassed 20 power-play goals, five game-winning goals and 211 shots. This season, he is on pace for 105 points with 47 goals (12 more than in 08-09) and 58 assists. He is also on pace for nine power-play goals, 13 game-winning goals (eight more than in 08-09) and a whopping 358 shots (147 more than 08-09). And remember, in 2008-2009, he played the entire 82-game season. If he stays healthy enough to play in the rest of the games this year, he will have played in 75 games, seven less than his best season.
How and when Malkin is scoring goals right now is also a key factor to examine. So far, Malkin has scored seven game winning goals, second to only Johan Franzen of the Detroit Redwings. That is already two more than in Malkin’s best season. On Nov. 15, Malkin scored one of his most memorable goals of the season against the Colorado Avalanche. He received a pass from James Neal in the corner of the offensive zone, deked and put the puck through the legs of a defender and dove across the goal mouth to deposit the puck behind goaltender Semyon Varlamov.
On Jan. 13, Malkin scored a natural hat-trick in the third period against the third place Florida Panthers to help win the game for the Penguins and end a six-game losing streak. Then four days later in a game against the Carolina Hurricanes, Malkin showed why he might be the best goal scorer in the NHL, skating in toward Cam Ward and then lifting the puck practically straight up to find the only space Ward was allowing on that side. It was nearly an impossible goal.
Then there was Geno’s backhand goal over Henrik Lundqvist on Jan. 19. The goal helped lift the Penguins to a win over the first place Rangers, ending a streak of three straight losses to the Blueshirts. He simply beat one of the game’s best goalies with one of the game’s most wicked backhands.
Or how about Malkin’s performance against Montreal on Friday, Jan. 20? He tied the game late in the third with one of the hardest one-timers you will ever see and then won the game in the shootout. And you can’t discount his latest game against the Washington Capitals, in which he notched the game winner in over time. His scoring feats go on and on this year. But it’s not just scoring in regulation and overtime that has made Malkin one of the elite scorers of the league. He is also much more comfortable in the shootout. It was common knowledge that in the past, Malkin didn’t like participating in the shootout. He was uninventive and he wasn’t productive. In 08-09, Geno was 2-7 in the shootout with a 28.6 goal percentage. And he only scored one game-deciding shootout goal that season. This year, Malkin is relishing the shootout. He is 4-6 with a 66.7 goal percentage and he already has two game-deciding shootout goals. At his current pace, expect Geno to notch seven shootout goals if the Pens shootout appearances continue to rack up at their current pace.
Defensively, Malkin is also excelling on the ice. He is currently a plus-12 and he continues to back check hard during every shift, making his speed and stick-work just as effective on defense as they are on offense. And one key aspect that I’ve noticed about Malkin is his willingness to block shots. Although most Penguins fans would rather he not put himself in the line of fire, his commitment to risk his body defensively makes a huge statement about him. His teammates and coaches know that when a superstar offensive player like Geno gets down in front of a slapper from the blue line, he is committed to help the team win in every way he can.
Finally, we should also examine Geno in the faceoff circle. This was another area that he never seemed comfortable in. In his career, Malkin averages a 41.3 win percentage in the faceoff circle. This year, he is winning 44.8 percent of his draws. So far, this is the best season of his career in taking draws, his previous best being his rookie season when he averaged 43.3 percent in the circle.
So why is this year so different? Why is Geno having one of the best seasons of his career? Because everyone was doubting Malkin, even Malkin himself. After his 2008-2009 season (in which he won the regular season scoring titles, was the leading scorer of the playoffs and was awarded the post-season MVP) Malkin’s numbers began to decline. In the 2009-2010 season, he scored 77 points (down from 113 the previous year), 28 goals (down from 35 the previous year) and was a minus-6 (compared to a plus-17 the previous year). Although he played in 15 games fewer in 2009-2010, it was apparent that there was something missing from his game. His skid continued in the 2010-2011 campaign, when he registered only 37 points (15 goals and 22 assists) in 43 games. Again, Malkin was a minus player when he went down with his knee injury.
The hockey pundits noticed the declines and were quick to write Geno off, and how could they not? The numbers were in black in white. The former Russian superstar just wasn’t playing like he had before. Tyler Myers gave Geno the opportunity to alter the course he was on and silence the doubters. Now he’s changing the way everyone has thought of him the past few seasons. He is in top form with no signs of slowing down. Once again, Evgeni Malkin is a superstar and the city of Pittsburgh couldn’t be happier.
On September 7, 2011, the Pittsburgh Penguins held a press conference to update the media and hopeful fans about the progress of their star captain Sidney Crosby. By this point, the concussion Crosby suffered on January 1 was old news. It had been a long seven months of hopeful anticipation for Crosby, the Penguins organization and fans of both. There had been setbacks in his recovery and no one was quite sure if Sid would ever lace up his skates again. But this press conference had a positive atmosphere. In fact, Dr. Ted Carrick – the Director of the Carrick Institute in Cape Canaveral, Fl. and one of Crosby’s neurologists – made an announcement that eased everyone’s worry. He said Christmas had come early for the young superstar.
“The reason this is Christmas is because Sid shouldn’t have any problems in the future…This case is one of the good outcomes.”
At this point, Sid wasn’t out of the woods yet, but it appeared that he was making a tremendous recovery and everyone’s doubts that his concussion may put an end to his career were basically washed away. Dr. Michael Collins, the Director of the UPMC Sports Medicine Concussion Program had evaluated Crosby just a day before and he agreed with Carrick about the improvement that Sid had made.
“The progress first of all is excellent that Sid will not have any long term problems from this injury. In fact, I’m supremely confident in that issue,” he said. “His data is the best we’ve seen. It is approaching normal limits.”
Thirty-seven days later, Crosby was officially cleared for contact in practice and 39 days after that, he was cleared to play in his first game in more than 11 months. During that return, there were a bunch of things I was looking for. I wanted to see if he could maintain normal shift time on the ice. (He did). I wanted to see if he was still aggressive and adventurous near the net with or without the puck. (He was). But most of all, I wanted to see him get hit. And honestly, I wanted to see him take a rough blow to the upper body. Don’t get me wrong, I definitely wasn’t hoping someone would target his head and cheap shot him, but I wanted to be reassured that he could go through a normal amount of blows during a typical game so that I could be sure Crosby would be the same as he always was while moving forward into the season. I’m sure that Sid himself felt the same urge.
Inside his mind, he wanted the same reassurance I did. After all, until he took some good shots, that doubt would linger somewhere deep down and the “what ifs” would remain. If he proved to himself and everyone else that the concussion was completely gone without any increased chance of return, it would be a weight off of his and everyone else’s shoulders. That would mean the time for worrying and frustration was gone, so Crosby could focus on the goal of winning another a Stanley Cup.
It indeed proved to be an emotional night for Crosby and everyone watching him at the Consol Energy Center in Pittsburgh. Crosby scored four points with two goals and two assists and it was as though the concussion had never even happened. The city of Pittsburgh was whole again and Crosby was once more the main focus of NHL community.
But that optimism and positivity didn’t last long. Only seven games into the start of Crosby’s season, he suffered yet another setback. Following a 3-1 loss against the Boston Bruins, Sid began to experience headaches and he was shut down by the Penguins once more. Crosby wasn’t quite sure what had caused the return of his symptoms, but he speculated that a hit he took from Boston center David Krejci may have done it.
It remains unclear how badly Sid is feeling and the official report said that he did not suffer another concussion, just concussion-like symptoms. Crosby has passed the baseline testing (an ImPACT test), but he still has a headache and doesn’t feel right.
It is also unclear how long Crosby will be out. Currently, he is not practicing and it feels like his concussion situation has reverted back to the level it reached this past summer, when Penguins fans were supremely worried about the future of the best player in hockey.
Since sustaining a concussion through two hits last year –the first coming from Dave Steckel of the Capitals on January 1 and the second coming from Victor Hedman of the Tampa Bay Lightning only a few days later – Crosby missed a total of 64 games between now and when he first left the ice, 41 games last season and 23 this season. The first concussion sure was disappointing, made worse by the Penguins’ early playoff exit in the first round of the playoffs, but I always felt that Crosby would fully rehabilitate himself and return to the ice at 100 percent. It looked as though he did, scoring 12 points in only eight games this season. But now, I’m not so sure Sid will ever be the same.
I believe Crosby will return sooner or later from the latest concussion symptoms because I’m an optimistic fan, but I now have a strong fear that any amount of contact may spur yet another re-occurrence of symptoms and Sid will continue to miss large chunks of games in both the long and short term. I’m also positive that Crosby does not want to go through the same strenuous rehabilitative process he went through this summer. Although the specifics of this rehab have never been truly revealed, during the September 7 press conference, Crosby’s doctors explained the process in some detail. “The brain allows you to know where you are in space and where space is in reference to you. In Sid’s case, that was not exactly correct,” Dr. Carrick said. “Areas in space were not in an appropriate grid to where he would perceive them, so we developed strategies to build him a new grid.”
Collins added that Sid had suffered a vestibular type of concussion (vestibular meaning the space and motion system of the brain.) “Sid’s vestibular system is better than anyone else’s,” Collins said. “That system makes Sid who he is… At this time, Sid has no vestibular symptoms.”
Crosby, the Penguins and his doctors handled the injury the best way they possibly could. Ray Shero, the general manager of the Penguins reiterated this fact numerous times during that press conference. But even though there was basically nothing else that could have been done for Crosby, his problems are flaring up once again and that’s very bad news.
Many questions were posed to Crosby and his doctors at the press conference, but one in particular caught my attention. Stan Savran, who covers the Penguins for Root Sports Pittsburgh, asked if there would come a point where there would be no evidence that an injury ever occurred and if Sid would be more susceptible to further head injuries, despite his recovery from this one. Collins answered back confidently. “Yes, there will be no evidence that this injury is there anymore. Our research and many others in this field understand that if you have full recovery, the outcomes are far less in terms of recidivism and problems reoccurring. And I expect that to occur in this case,” he said. “I’m very optimistic that we’ll see Sid have a very long and fruitful career.”
Taking that statement into account, as well as knowing that every precaution possible was taken for Crosby, I feel that his fate can only be determined by sheer luck. Now, I really have to question if a prior concussion can increase the chances you’ll suffer another one in the future.
I’ll keep an open mind of course, because I am a Penguins fan and a Crosby fan. So I’ll say that there is still a chance that Crosby is NOT concussion-prone, just unlucky.
There is also a tiny chance that Crosby had never taken a legitimately heavy shot to the brain in his career prior to the Steckel hit. That could indicate that his concussion tolerance was low to begin with and he had actually been lucky throughout all the hockey games he had ever played in before and had not taken any major contact to the head. Sid has said himself that he had never been diagnosed with a concussion before. This scenario is pretty much impossible, however. Hockey is a violent game and there’s no chance, in my opinion, that Crosby was lucky enough to avoid a shot to the head in all the years he’s played hockey. That means that Sid has almost definitely taken hits to his head, but none of them before Steckel’s were hard enough or direct enough to deliver a concussion.
Now that he fell victim to a big enough shot to his brain to concuss him, it seems likely to me that he simply does not have the tolerance to concussions that he did before Steckel. The Hedman hit may be evidence of that. Remember, the shot in the Winter Classic delivered the initial concussion, but Crosby didn’t miss any games because of it. He went on a few days later to play in the very next game four days after the Winter Classic against Tampa Bay. That is when he was hit by Hedman and he didn’t play another game that season. In my opinion, that goes to show that something permanent has occurred inside Crosby’s head. It may not be detectable, but there is some kind of switch that flipped in his brain that he cannot switch back. And hear me right, I’m not talking about some sort of mental fear that Crosby has. That’s not my point at all. I’m talking about a permanent physical condition that cannot be treated and cannot be cured. It is a bell that cannot be un-rung, so to speak.
During the summer press conference, Crosby’s doctors stated that he was “approaching normal.” So hypothetically, let’s say that today, Crosby is once again approaching normal. (Which I believe is unfortunately a little too optimistic.) Initially, it took a total of 75 days after the press conference for him to fully recover and return to action. That would mean that he would be cleared for contact in practice 37 days from now, which would put us at January 21. After another 39 days, he would be cleared to return to games, which would be on February 29 against the Dallas Stars. This scenario would leave only 19 games left in the regular season. In total, he would miss 55 regular season games. Last season, he missed 14 games LESS than that. So hypothetically, this season could ultimately prove to be even more frustrating than the last.
I can’t remember any other time in my life that I’ve ever wanted to be proven wrong so badly.
So I and the rest of the Penguins nation will wait with bated breath. There is no time table and there are no speculations. Again, the Penguins organization will take its time and do this whole thing the same way as before, the safe way and the right way. And hopefully—knock on wood, pull a four-leaf clover, pick up a heads-up penny and walk under a horseshoe—that pays off better than it did the first time.