Game 13 of Remaining 29: Toronto at Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh Penguins: 39-21-5 (83 points)

4th in the Eastern Conference

VS.

Toronto Maple Leafs: 30-29-7 (67 points)

12th in the Eastern Conference

Although my predictions have gone awry lately (again), I feel like I’m going to get back on track with this prediction. So far this season, Pittsburgh has won only once in three meetings with the Leafs — which came at home. This match up is at the Consol Energy Center, so I’m confident that the Pens can take care of business in front of the home crowd. Rookie Brad Thiessen will get the start. My prediction: Pens WIN.

My final 29 prediction record: 4-8

Game 12 of Remaining 29: Phoenix at Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh Penguins: 38-21-5 (81 points)

4th in the Eastern Conference

VS.

Phoenix Coyotes: 33-24-9 (75 points)

3rd in the Western Conference

Although the Coyotes have lost two in a row before tonight, don’t expect the Desert Dogs to come out sluggish. They are still third in the Western Conference and have the Stars nipping at their heals. My prediction: Pens LOSE.

My final 29 prediction record: 4-7

Top Ten Surprises of the 2011-2012 NHL Season

There is still more than a month left before the Stanley Cup playoffs, but this season has already given us plenty of excitement and surprise. So I thought it’d be fun to visit 10 of the biggest surprises this season has offered up so far. So without further ado…

10. The Detroit Red Wings record setting 23-straight wins at home.

Why is this surprising?

I know at first, it isn’t that hard to believe. There is a strong tradition of winning in Detroit and fan support there is always amongst the top in the league. But consider how long this record lasted before this season. The last team to hold the record was the Boston Bruins (22 straight) during 1929-30 and ’30-31. In those days, professional hockey was a much different game. Stars played entire careers with one team and dynasties were more frequent. The current game is ripe with parity and regardless of who you play, there’s always a chance of suffering a loss.

You also have to consider that during the streak, Detroit didn’t have their No. 1 goalie Jimmy Howard for a number of games during the final stretch. Howard’s fill-in – Joey MacDonald – won six straight to help break the record. For a backup to achieve a streak like that in pressure situations is pretty admirable.

9. The Buffalo Sabres are out of playoff contention.

Why is this surprising?

After last season, owner Terry Pegula vowed to spend heaps of money to turn Buffalo into a Stanley Cup contender. To sure up the blue line, he signed Christian Ehrhoff through 2021 at a cap hit of $4 million. He also brought on Robyn Regehr for about the same price through 2013. If that wasn’t enough, Pegula snapped up Ville Leino from Philadelphia to increase goal scoring at the hefty price of $4.5 million through 2017. It seemed that Buffalo was going to be a real contender in the 2011-2012 season. But so far, they have been a disappointment. They are currently 11th in the Eastern Conference. The stars Pegula brought in are having down years and their best player, goaltender Ryan Miller, just hasn’t looked himself for much of the season. He has had some injury problems and the backup Jhonas Enroth hasn’t been able to help during Miller’s absences. The Sabres still have a shot at making the postseason, but the team really needs to turn up the intensity in its remaining 17 games.

8. Concussions are increasing at a high rate.

Why is this surprising?

The expansion of Rule 48, plain and simple. After losing the face of the league (Sidney Crosby) and a number of others to concussions last season, NHL officials met in the offseason and expanded rule 48 to eliminate the dangerous hits to the head that were causing many of the concussions in the NHL. Check out this quote from an article written by Dan Rosen of NHL.com last year:

“There were hits this year that we want eliminated from the game and we need to make sure we don’t end up back in this situation again next year,” said former NHL veteran Mathieu Schneider, special assistant to NHLPA Executive Director Donald Fehr. “Without getting real specific, players and managers, and as my thinking would be, the Board of Governors and our Board, want to keep the physical play in and want to put some onus on guys being aware on the ice, but at the same time there are hits that we want to rid ourselves of. By expanding Rule 48, we’re hoping to be able to do that.”

That didn’t happen.

This is just a sample set of the players who suffered concussions this season so far: Sidney Crosby Claude Giroux, Mike Richards, Michael Sauer, Jeff Skinner, Joni Pitkanen, Kris Letang, Chris Pronger,  Zbynek Michalek, Robert Bortuzzo, Jay Beagle, Milan Michalek, Brayden Schenn, Radek Martinek, Marek Zidlicky, Nathan Gerbe, Nicklas Backstrom, Ryan Miller, James Reimer and Jonathan Toews.

Brendan Shanahan, the director of player discipline, has handed out his fair share of suspensions stemming from concussion-causing hits this season, but obviously the suspensions and the rule expansion haven’t done enough to take head-shots out of the game.

7. The Philadelphia Flyers are the highest scoring team in the NHL.

Why is this surprising?

This past offseason, the Flyers gutted the scoring of their team. They sent their captain Mike Richards to Los Angeles. From 2007-2011, he averaged 28 goals, 42 assists and 70 points per season. The Flyers also sent center Jeff Carter to the Blue Jackets. From 2007-2011, he averaged 36 goals, 30 assists and 66 points per season. And not to go unnoticed, Philadelphia also lost Ville Leino to Buffalo. Last season, he scored 19 goals, 34 assists and 53 points.

It seemed that the Flyers were losing a ton of firepower to free up cap room to sign goalie Ilya Bryzgalov. But despite those players and their juicy numbers going elsewhere, the Flyers have still averaged 3.25 goals per game. They have scored 208 goals this season, six more than second ranked Boston. The Flyers have managed to climb to the top of the scoring list by getting help from a number of different players. Scott Hartnell leads the team with 31 goals, followed by Claude Giroux’s 23 and 22 from Wayne Simmonds. Currently, the Flyers have 10 players with 10 or more goals.

6. Tampa Bay is 10th in the Eastern Conference.

Why is this surprising?

Last year, the Lightning was the team to beat in the postseason. After recovering from a 3-1 deficit against Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay surged to win three straight to win the series. Then they easily swept Washington in the second round. And in the Eastern Conference finals, it took the eventual Stanley Cup champion Bruins seven games to finish off the Lightning. Steven Stamkos was coming into his own (and is currently the league leader in goals (47) and points (80)) and the veteran leadership of Martin St. Louis and Vincent Lecavalier is still there. So what is so different between this year’s team and last year’s?

Goaltending.

Somehow, Dwayne Roloson was outstanding last season with the Bolts, especially in the playoffs. Everyone predicted that the 41-year-old net minder was too old to carry the team, but that’s exactly what he did. Now, it seems that his age has finally caught up to him. Add in the fact that the Tampa Bay blueliners are relatively poor and haven’t provided their goalies with much help all season long. But even though the situation for Tampa has looked dismal for most of this season, they remain only two points out of a playoff spot and six points back of the Southeast Division lead.

5. The Florida Panthers may win the Southeast Division.

Why is this surprising?

The Panthers haven’t made the postseason in 10 years. It is the longest drought in all of hockey.  Although the Southeast Division is shaky at best, the winner will reap the benefits of a No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference of the Stanley Cup playoffs. The Panthers have led the division for the majority of the season. Over the past few weeks, the position has wavered, allowing both the Winnipeg Jets and the Washington Capitals to claim the top spot for a few games. But the fact remains that the Panthers have been the best team in that division for the majority of the season and they probably deserve to win the Southeast.

Florida has been led by the stellar scoring line of Stephen Weiss, Tomas Fleischmann and Kris Versteeg. Collectively, the three have scored 58 goals, 83 assists and 141 points. And even though the goaltending staff had to mix and match because of injuries (starter Jose Theodore has started only 37 games) it has managed to win 30 games between Theodore, Scott Clemmensen and Jacob Markstrom to post a solid .915 save percentage and a goals against average of 2.64. Those numbers may just be good enough for a division win come April.

4. The Washington Capitals are on the verge of missing the playoffs.

Why is this surprising?

For starters, Vegas gave the Caps 7/1 odds of winning the Stanley Cup before the season. The only other team given the same odds was the Vancouver Canucks, which came within a game of winning Lord Stanley’s hardware last season. The Caps were favorites for a win because of their scoring depth, with guys like Ovechkin, Semin and Backstrom. They also had a solid defense with outstanding blue liner Mike Green and experienced veterans Dennis Wideman and Roman Hamrlik. Goaltending seemed like it could be an issue, but Washington management was confident that sending their previous starter Semyon Varlamov to Colorado wouldn’t hinder the 2011-2012 season because of the young talent of Michal Neuvirth, Braden Holtby and acquired veteran Tomas Vokoun.

But unfortunately for Washington, this season has been sub-par at best. They are ranked 21 in goals against per game and they rank 13th in goal scoring. After an 8-0 start, Washington has won more than two games in a row only three times this season. But because the Capitals are in the weak Southeast Division, they still stand a chance at making the playoffs and are currently only one point out of the playoff picture.

3. The Flyers goaltending woes continue.

Why is this surprising?

They Flyers haven’t had a dependable goaltender for close to a decade. After last season, the Flyers organization decided it had enough and on June 23, 2011, Philadelphia signed Ilya Bryzgalov to a nine-year, $51 million contract. The length of the contract was unprecedented for goalies in the NHL, but the Flyers had good reason to think it was a good move. Bryzgalov was the runner-up for the Vezina Trophy and a top-5 finalist for the Hart Trophy in the 2009–10 NHL season. His career goals-against average was an admirable 2.39 and his career save percentage was .915. He had also won more than 150 games in less than 10 seasons in the NHL. When the Flyers signed him, he was easily in the top-10 of goalies in the NHL and perhaps even the top five.

But this season has not been kind to Bryzgalov.

Although he has 23 wins this season, his save percentage is a paltry .898 (the worst of his career) and his goals-against average is 2.79, the second worst of his career. Bryz hasn’t looked comfortable between the pipes in Philly this season. And in the Winter Classic against the New York Rangers, Flyers coach Peter Laviolette elected to start last year’s No. 1 goalie, Sergei Bobrovsky. Bryzgalov was clearly upset with the decision and it was a clear sign that the team’s confidence in him has wavered. Philly still has a solid team with the most scoring in the league, but if Bryzgalov cannot find his mojo before the playoffs, the Flyers Stanley Cup hopes just may fade away this season.

2. St. Louis is only two points back of the overall lead in the NHL

Why is this surprising?

St. Louis has been a perennial bust. They have not won a playoff game since 2003-2004 and they haven’t won a playoff series since 2001-2002. The team also has not qualified for the playoffs in five of the last six seasons. But this season, after a 6-7 start that left St. Louis in 14th place in the Western Conference, the Blues fired head coach Davis Payne in favor of Ken Hitchcock, a man with more than 1,000 games of coaching experience and the 4th Blues head coach since 2006.

The move paid off.

Currently St. Louis is in second in the Western Conference and only one point back from first place Vancouver. The Blues have one of the best defenses in all of the NHL and are the league leaders in goals allowed per game (1.89), have allowed the fewest goals in the NHL (125) and are fourth in the NHL in plus/minus (plus-41). But best aspect of this team is between the pipes. Which leads us to…

1. Brian Elliott’s phenomenal year.

Why is this surprising?

No one could have predicted the year that goaltender Brian Elliott is having. His save percentage of .937 is second in the NHL and his goals-against average of 1.63 is tops in the league. The 26-year-old goalie also ranks third in shutouts with six. These stats are drastically better than his career numbers. In Elliott’s first four seasons – the majority of which were with the Ottawa Senators – his average save percentage was .912 and his goals-against average was 2.67. Elliott has only 20 wins this season, but that is only because he is effectively splitting time with Jaroslav Halak, who is having a tremendous season of his own. With these backstops holding the fort in St. Louis, who knows what the Blues will be capable of in the Stanley Cup playoffs.

Game 11 of Remaining 29: Pittsburgh at Colorado

Pittsburgh Penguins: 37-21-5 (79 points)

4th in the Eastern Conference

                       VS.

Colorado Avalanche: 33-28-4 (70 points)

10th in the Western Conference

So far this season, Pittsburgh has played the Avalanche only once, capturing a 6-3 victory at home in the Consol Energy Center. This matchup takes the Pens out to chilly Denver in the second game of a two-game western road trip. Pittsburgh is on a four-game winning streak while Colorado is coming off of a loss against last place Columbus. But just because the Avs were shutout by the worst team in hockey, don’t expect them to continue the poor play. I’d like the Pens to keep their streak alive, but I predicted 10 games ago that the Pens will LOSE in overtime or a shootout, garnering the team a single point.

My final 29 prediction record: 4-6

Game 10 of Remaining 29: Pittsburgh at Dallas

Pittsburgh Penguins: 36-21-5 (77 points)

4th in the Eastern Conference

VS.

  Dallas Stars:33-26-4 (70 points)

8th in the Western Conference

This one is a tricky pick. Right now, both of these teams look pretty good. However, the Pens recent success came at the expense of a terrible Tampa Bay club and a GOD AWFUL Columbus team. The Stars are surging right now, in the midst of a four-game winning streak. Unfortunately, my pick was and still is: Pens LOSE

I’m finally finding some success in my predictions. I’ve picked correctly in three straight games. My final 29 prediction record- 4-5

Game 9 of Remaining 29: Columbus at Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh Penguins: 35-21-5 (75 points)

5th in the Eastern Conference

VS.

Columbus Blue Jackets: 18-36-7 (43 points)

15th in the Western Conference

Just like last game, this one is basically a no-brainer. There’s a good chance that Fleury may not play, but regardless, this Columbus team is the worst in hockey and to pick against them is always a good play. My prediction: Pens WIN.

My final 29 prediction record- 3-5

Game 8 of Remaining 29: Tampa Bay at Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh Penguins: 34-21-5 (73 points)

5th in the Eastern Conference

VS.

  Tampa Bay Lightning: 27-27-6 (60 points)

11th in the Eastern Conference

This isn’t a tough call for me. The Pens have basically owned the Lightning this season. My prediction: Pens WIN.

My final 29 prediction record- 2-5

Game 7 of Remaining 29: New York Rangers at Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh Penguins: 33-21-5 (71 points)

6th in the Eastern Conference

VS.

  New York Rangers: 38-14-5 (81 points)

1st in the Eastern Conference

This is Pittsburgh’s biggest game to date of the season. They are coming off one of their worst games of the season, a 6-2 trouncing by Buffalo. A win for the Pens will take two away from New York and bring the Pens one step closer to the top of the Atlantic Division. A Pens win, a Philadelphia loss and a New Jersey loss will put Pittsburgh squarely in 4th place in the Eastern Conference. That would also give Pittsburgh the second most points in the Eastern Division (73), second to only the Rangers. Although the Rangers have never lost in the Consol Energy Center, I believe this is the night. My pick: Pens WIN.

My final 29 prediction record- 1-5

Decision Time for Penguins GM Shero

At this point in the Pittsburgh Penguins’ season, general manager Ray Shero should be asking himself a few questions.

First and foremost, when is Sidney Crosby coming back?

Crosby has been feeling better lately. He is skating almost every day and he says that his previous balance issues have subsided. However, Sid is still suffering from headaches. He says they’re getting more tolerable, but that isn’t good enough. He needs to be symptom-free before he is cleared for contact in practice. Then, it will probably take a few weeks so Crosby can find out for sure if he is able to take contact without his symptoms returning.

Unfortunately, that’s a big “if.”

One option Shero could do is place Crosby on long-term injured reserve. Doing so would free up significant cap room for Shero to make a big deal before the trade deadline a week from now. Long-term injured reserve would also mean Sid would not be eligible to come back in the regular season, but he would be able to return for the playoffs.  There are only 23 games remaining in the Penguins regular season, which spans seven weeks. I’m not sure it’s likely that Crosby can become symptom-free, cleared for contact and return to game action in seven weeks.

Look at Sid’s previous recovery period. On September 7, 2011, Crosby and his doctors held a press conference to announce that he had made significant progress from his previous concussion and at that point, he was nearly symptom-free. It took 75 days after that press conference for Sid to return to game action. Even if the Penguins announced tomorrow that he was symptom-free, 75 days after that would be April 30. At that point, Pittsburgh would be well past the regular season, which ends on April 7.

Hopefully, Sid’s latest recovery won’t take him that long. But even if it took half that time, that would leave only six games remaining in the regular season. But could those six games make a huge difference in the Penguins’ playoff seeding?

Absolutely.

Those six include games against the Flyers, Bruins and Rangers. All of which are currently ahead of Pittsburgh in the Eastern Conference standings.

But right now, this team has shown it can win score without Sid. More importantly, it has shown it can win without him.

So that brings Shero to his next question, should he assume that Sid won’t be back for the regular season, place him on LTIR and make an acquisition?

Shero has always been one of the biggest movers and shakers at the trade deadline, previously acquiring guys like Marian Hossa and Chris Kunitz. He also added tremendous talent when he acquired James Neal from Dallas last year (as well as a solid defenseman in Matt Niskanen).

But Shero’s deals haven’t all been peaches and cream. Neal was basically a bust last season. Sure, he’s showing his true colors now, but he didn’t score much last year and that’s why the Pens were ousted so quickly in the first round of the playoffs. Last year, Shero also added former Penguin Alex Kovalev. He turned out to be just as unproductive as Neal.

Overall, I trust Shero’s judgment. But what does he need to add to the team to make a legitimate playoff run? Obviously, it never hurts to add scoring to the lineup.

There are a few notable scorers out there that are rumored to be on the trading block soon, the biggest of which is Rick Nash of the Columbus Bluejackets. But even if Sid were on LTIR, the cap room wouldn’t be enough and the Pens would have to take on a six-year contract, with a hit of $7.8 million per year. They can’t afford that.

One name that has surfaced in trade speculation is Buffalo Sabres forward Paul Gaustad. He will become an unrestricted free agent after this season and the Sabres are well out of contention, so there’s a good chance they will want to move him. He brings a cap hit of $2.3 million, which could be affordable for the Pens after moving Crosby to LTIR.

Gaustad is a big net front presence. At 6-feet, 4-inches tall and weighing 225 pounds, he certainly makes a better door than window in front of a goaltender, which is vastly important in today’s NHL. Gaustad is also a solid face-off man. On Sunday against Pittsburgh, he won 16 of his 23 draws.

I wouldn’t be opposed to bringing him on, but remember that the Penguins already have a significant net-front guy. Chris Kunitz earns every penny he makes in front of the net, providing screens vital to the scoring of his line mates Evgeni Malkin and James Neal. I wouldn’t take Gaustad ahead of “Crease” Kunitz, but having them both could be productive.

But in my honest opinion, there’s only one area that Pittsburgh has been awful at: backup goaltending. Brent Johnson is having one of his worst seasons of his career, with a record of 3-7-2, a goals against average of 3.17 and a save percentage of .882. He has been pulled in three of his last five starts.

Johnson has been a popular player in Pittsburgh, especially after he sent opposing Islanders goalie Rick DiPietro crashing to the ice in a rare goalie fight last February.

But with 23 games remaining, the Penguins need to do something to sure up their backup goalie spot. Fleury has already started 47 games and has appeared in 50. If the Flower started in every remaining game, that would put his regularly season total at 70. That would be way too many. Historically, goalies that play in upwards of 60-70 games get too worn down and end up ineffective in the playoffs. When the Penguins won the Stanley Cup in 2008-2009, Fleury started 61 games. Even that was considered too many.

So hypothetically, Fleury should start in about 10 more of the remaining 23 to put him on pace for his Stanley Cup winning season. Pittsburgh cannot risk leaving Johnson to start 13 more games this year.

So what can Shero do?

His first option would be to call up goaltender Brad Thiessen from the Wilkes-Barre Scranton Penguins in the American Hockey League. With the Baby Pens, Thiessen is 20-14-2 with a 2.88 GAA and a .885 save percentage. Unfortunately, the 25-year-old goaltender has not started any NHL games in his career. I know that goose egg is worrisome, but it might be worth the risk at this point. Honestly, Johnson couldn’t get much worse.

Shero’s other option would be acquiring a backup from elsewhere in the NHL. It’s tough to predict where backup goaltenders could go, but I think the Pens GM should be looking at all of the non-playoff contending teams and their backup goaltenders for possible deals. This list includes Columbus, Edmonton and Anaheim in the West and Carolina, Buffalo, New York Islanders and Montreal in the East.

Columbus backup Curtis Sanford could be a viable option, but was recently placed on injured reserve with an upper- body injury and is listed as day-to-day. If he were to get healthy quickly, he could garner interest. This season, Sanford has gone 10-13-4 with a 2.52 goals-against average and a .915 save percentage on a terrible defensive team. Like Brent Johnson, he will become an unrestricted free agent after this season and he commands the same $600,000 cap hit.

Or how about someone from the Islanders? They are deep at the position, essentially with way more backup talent than starting talent. They have seasoned veterans Evgeni Nabokov and Al Montoya, commanding $570,000 and $601,000 contracts, respectively. They both also become unrestricted free agents after this season, so it’s probable the Islanders could move at least one of them to clear some cap space.

One other viable option could be third-string goalie Justin Peters of the Carolina Hurricanes. The team has established that Brian Boucher is their solid No. 2 guy, so why not move Peters? Pittsburgh may be reluctant to move any of their prospects in this deal, but Peters will become a restricted free agent after this season and his salary is only $525,000 per season. This season, Peters is 1-3-0 with a 3.65 goals-against average and a .911 save percentage. Sure the numbers aren’t fantastic, but in the turbulent world of the NHL, you never know.

Good luck, Ray, I’m glad I’m not in your seat right now.

Game 6 of Remaining 29: Pittsburgh at Buffalo

Pittsburgh Penguins: 33-20-5 (71 points)

5th in the Eastern Conference

VS.

Buffalo Sabres: 24-27-7 (55 points)

15th in the Eastern Conference

I’ll admit it, I haven’t been doing so well on my predictions so far. But like I’ve mentioned before, it’s tough to predict games that are weeks away like I did initially. Regardless, I’m pressing on. Pittsburgh is carrying a ton of momentum to Buffalo after a big win in Philly on Saturday. The Sabres, however, have little to no momentum or hope. They are dead last in the Eastern Conference and there is no end in sight. My prediction: Pens WIN.

My final 29 prediction record: 1-4